BNP Paribas Foresees Copper Prices Falling to $8,500 per Tonne as Tariff Rush Slows

BNP Paribas now projects a sharp downturn in copper prices over the coming months as global efforts to frontload shipments to the U.S. ahead of potential 25% tariffs begin to wane. The bank’s latest forecast—released on Friday—points to copper falling from its recent nine‐month high of over $10,000 per tonne in London to roughly $8,500 per tonne by the end of Q2 2025.

The recent rally in copper prices was driven by a scramble to supply the U.S. market amid concerns over national security, following an announcement that spurred buyers to accelerate imports before the tariffs took effect. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper were already en route, creating a temporary squeeze in global supply. However, a Bloomberg report now suggests the timeline for tariff implementation could be compressed from months to weeks, which, according to BNP Paribas, leaves little time for further shipments to be diverted.

David Wilson, senior commodities strategist at BNP, noted that the anticipated tariff will force the market to shift focus from supply constraints to the negative demand impact of U.S. trade policies. The bank revised its global copper consumption forecast to a 2.3% increase for this year, down from 3.1%, and now expects a supply surplus of 460,000 tonnes—significantly higher than its earlier estimate of 124,000 tonnes. This surplus, Wilson argues, is a direct result of reduced global trade, a trend echoed by other market participants.

Not all voices agree with BNP’s outlook, however. Senior analyst Kyle Rodda at Capital.com points to a dual narrative: while tariffs might dampen demand, factors such as China’s stimulus measures and a weaker U.S. dollar could offset some of the downward pressure.